Meteosim will develop and supply the weather forecast services for extreme events, which consists in delivering the best prediction of high impact weather variables (precipitation, temperature, etc.), at forecast time scales from hours up to ten days (240 h). This information could be useful to wine producers to minimize risks related to coming extreme events (for instance, if heat waves is forecasted in three days, wine producers could act in advance irrigating the field two days before the event). With the objective of providing the most in field-useful weather information, Meteosim will provide two different products; short term deterministic weather forecast and mid term probabilistic weather forecast.
The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF-ARW ) - a next-generation mesoscale numerical weather prediction system - will be used for the short term weather forecast. The availability of weather observational data on the simulated areas will feed the model as data assimilation, in order produce the best weather forecast. Model results will be evaluated against available observational data. The model will be initialized with data from a larger scale, the Global Forecast System (GFS) and the iterated forward in time. Meteosim will calibrate the meteorological model WRF-ARW for operational forecasting of the extreme events in order to achieve the optimum model configuration for each demo-site. An accurate meteorological forecasting will allow reducing the impact of the extreme events over the different regions. To do this, some experiments will be define using the most sensitive model configurations.
On the other hand, the Global Ensemble Forecast System model (GEFS) – a global weather forecast model made up of 21 ensemble members - will be used to generate the probabilistic forecast for the mid term length horizon. In order to adjust the biases that affect mid term weather forecasts, statistical downscaling method will be used relying the availability of local historical meteorological data.
2m Temperature short term forecast map example for a simulated area
Sea level pressure and precipitation mid-term forecast graphic for a required local spot